Jan 16 2024, 07:31
Tehran and Red Sea sharks: India is best positioned to convey to Iran the need to rein in the Houthis
The present situation in West Asia, altered by the Israeli-Hamas war and the emergence of Iran-backed Houthi rebels as lead responders against Israel, requires a credible conversation with Iran. From an Iranian standpoint too, the overall picture is not encouraging. It has just suffered a twin terror strike killing at least 90 people. While ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack, the political rhetoric in Tehran remains directed at the West. As a result, it has got pushed into the Russia-China bloc with doors shut on the rest.
Historically, Houthis are from a sect that is a variant of Shia Islam. While there are doctrinal differences, Houthis are today part of the larger Iran-led Shia political alliance.
Their targeting of merchant vessels in the Red Sea has forced major shipping and freight companies to avoid the Suez Canal and, instead, take the circuitous route around the Cape of Good Hope to Asia. This has increased the distance by 3,300 nautical miles, journey time by 8-10 days and raised shipping costs by 20-25%, depending on the type of vessel, besides throwing tight berthing schedules across ports out of gear. While the immediate impact is still within manageable limits, it's the cumulative long-term effect, in case the situation doesn't improve, that has all stakeholders worried.
In this context, the visit of external affairs minister S Jaishankar to Iran acquires significance. India has a healthy relationship with the Ebrahim Raisi regime, one where it has proven its effectiveness as a power that can help Tehran on a larger stage. India, for instance, played a key role in Iran becoming a BRICS member.
Saudi Arabia was not keen on Iran getting into the grouping. Which is where Tehran's application for membership ran into trouble. It was India, while agreeing to support the Saudi case, which also backed Iran and then worked hard to lobby with the rest to see it through. This was an important signal from a regional balance of power perspective for Iran. That India decided to press ahead despite its close ties with the US also helped strengthen credibility of the relationship.
India will, thus, look to use its channels to impress upon Iran to proactively de-escalate the prevailing situation in the Red Sea as attacks by Houthi rebels are not targeted at just Israeli interests but all merchant vessels. And, despite Tehran's denials, the fact is that it may end up on the wrong side of the ledger with many countries, including India, if all commercial maritime traffic in area remain in the danger of being hit.
In many ways, India is positioned best to convey to Iran where this could lead if it does not reconsider its position. And if Iran were to take the Indian side seriously, it might just provide an opening to rebuild bridges of engagement it desperately needs to step out of a difficult political corner it finds itself in, with limited diplomatic options and increasing dependencies on Russia and China. In fact, India may just provide it the heft to rebalance, recalibrate and reboot.
source:et
Jan 16 2024, 08:41
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